AUD/USD----Confirmed Double Tops and ready for its Plunge ??

On Daily Chart, you may spot that the Price Action has drifted below both the Pivot and Ichimoku Cloud Top Resistance  near 0.8720.

Please do refer to my recent posting on AUD/USD.

Now this currency pair is ready to head south with 0.8457(61.8% Fibo Retr) being the immediate target, as the Double Tops IS IMMINENT on daily chart.

Daily Chart

USD/CHF --- A potential good trade set up..

 On H4,  we CAN Enter a BUY trade when the USD/CHF opens above the pivot at 1.0608.

 For the past few trading days, an imminent reversal is being finalized.

The 38.2 % Fibo Retr  at 1.0656 SHALL BE THE immediate target, follows by 1.0700 (23.6%)and 1.0765 (0%  Fibo.Retr)

H4 Chart

GBP----Under Renewed Selling Pressure after S & P 's Comments ??

STERLING DROPS by S&P's remarks that it is maintaining its negative outlook on the UK and that further rise in UK public debt burden would be incompatible with AAA rating. 


Please review my previous post below on its possible TRIPLE TOPS formation.(GBP/USD.)


You shall have an Excellent Trade setup .


Happy Trading

GBP/USD --another TRIPLE TOPS formation for SELL DOWN ??

GBP/USD breached 1.5240 at its highest last week, and weakened toward Market close at 1.5059.

On the H4 chart, you do note that the Price Action moved within a parallel channel between 1.5226 (First Resistance line on chart) and 1.5101 (23.6% Fibo. Retr) last few weeks.

An imminent Triple Tops within the above Parallel channel can be spotted. Furthermore, the PA plunged below the near term down trend line (painted in purple), coupled with bearish divergence on the RSI and Stochastic, may lead to its resumption on its  mid term downtrend.

On H4, Breaking the 1.5014(61.8% Fibo Retr), also near the Ichimuko Cloud Bottom, will further conform its commencement on its downward trend., and 1.4900 shall then be on sight next.

However, if 1.5127 (Tenkan -sen line) is retested successfully, then the move to its recent high at 1.5240 cannot be ruled out. And  any  upward move shall be limited and capped at that level ( 1.5240)

Strategy: 

SELL on Mild Recovery near 1.5100 ( 38.2% Fibo Retr)

First Target: 1.5010

Next Target: 1.4900 




Zoomed-in H4 Chart

Zoomed-out H4

Special Announcement on my free E-Book Download

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Happy Trading

AUD/USD--Another SELL DOWN Target ???

AUD/USD on H4 hovered between 0.8780-0.8720 with  diminishing upward momentum toward end of  last week's  trading days.

However, the mild positive-biased indicators show  that its next up- movement toward  0.8860 cannot be ruled out.

On Daily Chart, the PA (Price action) is TESTING the 100 EMA at 0.8780., but the Maximum possible uplift shall be capped at 0.9000 (its next resistance) due to its diminishing momentum and flat divergence ahead.

On the Down side, on Daily Chart, breaking  0.8668 ( 50% Fibo Retr) shall expose 0.8527 (61.8% Fibo Retr),which is also near the Ichimoku cloud bottom), followed by 0.8060 next.

Strategy:

SELL Near 0.8820-0.8840  (Its next resistance on Daily Chart)

First Target: 0.8668, followed by 0.8527, then 0.8060

H4 Chart:

Daily Chart 

Currency Cross Correlation-- How to use it to trade PROFITABLY ??

What is Currency Cross Correlation ??

The easiest way to see the composition of a cross currency is to observe the underlying currencies. If you opened three charts side by side on your screen, say the GBPUSD, USDCHF and the cross GBPCHF, and made them bold, large candlesticks on the 1 MINUTE chart, you can observe the tick by tick nature of the moves. The cross currency pair is nothing except the relationship of the strength between the underlying two pairs. Basically, the cross is nothing more than an algorithm of the relationship between the underlying pairs. The cross does not move on it's own accord, as in a standard supply and demand relationship (like contracts in the Futures markets traded on an exchange). Rather it moves in a dance in step with the underlying currencies.

There are 9 possibilities of correlation (in the Strength-Weakness relationship), but before I list them, I must state that an understanding of the BASE currency (the FIRST pair listed in a currency combination) and the DIRECTION of the candles is an absolute MUST to understand strength and weakness. Strength is occurring in the BASE currency and is demonstrated by a candle moving UP. The opposite is true, as well, going down. This can cause some confusion when one sees the USD getting stronger against one currency and at the same time get weaker against the other (this is what happens when the GBPUSD moves more than say, the USDCHF. When the USD gets equally stronger against both the GBP and the CHF at the same time, the GBPCHF stays FLAT. It can be a bit confusing to fully grasp this when trading strength and weakness, but like anything, practice sharpens the skill. Taking 30 full minutes of fully observing this at a busy time in the market, will make the relationship with the cross clear. I's a good exercise for newer cross traders.

Example: GBPUSD candles moving up STRONG and USDCHF candles moving UP STRONG = GBPCHF moving up STRONG (Actually this means that the USD is getting weak against the GBP and at the same time the USD is getting strong against the CHF) Interpret: Candles on BOTH GBPUSD and USDCHF are moving up together strong = STRONG move up on GBPCHF (but, at almost 1.7:1 ratio!! GBPJPY doing this is almost a 2:1 ratio!)

The 9 Strength-Weakness Correlation positions:

1. GBP/USD Up and USD/CHF Up - Cross will move UP STRONG (Primary trade objective moves)
2. GBP/USD Down and USD/CHF Down - Cross will move DOWN STRONG (Primary trade objective moves)

3. GBP/USD Up and USD/CHF Down equally - Cross will REMAIN FLAT (Don’t trade these moves)
4. GBP/USD Down and USD/CHF Up equally - Cross will REMAIN FLAT (Don’t trade these moves)


5. GBP/USD Up and USD/CHF FLAT - Cross will move UP MODERATELY (Can bring decent profits)
6. GBP/USD FLAT and USD/CHF Up - Cross will move UP MODERATELY (Can bring decent profits)

7. GBP/USD Down and USD/CHF FLAT - Cross will move DOWN MODERATELY (Can bring decent profits)
8. GBP/USD FLAT and USD/CHF Down - Cross will move DOWN MODERATELY (Can bring decent profits)

9. GBP/USD FLAT and USD/CHF FLAT - Cross will remain FLAT (Market is undecided – leave alone)


Correlation trading like this is actually a type of Triangular Arbitrage, where we are exploiting the ineffieciencies of the market (completely legal and respectable) and knowing these 9 possibilities brings about a greater awareness of looking at two currencies and getting enough valid information to trade a third / cross currency. 



Most people think that the crosses move on their own accord, with separate support and resistance, etc. like the underlying currencies. The crosses hit S and R when the underlying currencies do, not on their own! But it truly looks like the crosses are moving on their own accord a chart! This is the biggest understanding about crosses. 

USD/JPY---TIME FOR BUYING UP ??

If you refer to my last post (Last week) on USD/JPY from below link:-

http://millionaireclub88.blogspot.com/2010/07/jpy-another-safe-haven-currency-is-to.html

You do note that our last analysis above on the possible JPY being weakened is spot-on.

Last week this currency pair touched 88.69 and sit above the down trend line (marked in purple) on  88.58  before market close.

Further breaking 88.76 (Recent high) ,which is also near Ichimoku Cloud Top (H4) shall yield its much needed upward momentum to see 89.23, then 91.43,, being its next strong Resistance.

However, Breaking the down trend line And  below 87.85 (50% Fibo Retr), which is also near the Ichimoku Cloud bottom shall bring its downward movement toward 87.02 next.

Strategy: 

BUY on Pull Back Near  88.10--88.20 ( H4, Tenkan-Sen Line and 23.6% Fibo Retr)

First Target:     89.00

Second Target: 91.00



H4 Chart

Daily Chart

AUD/USD--- -Another commodity currency to SELL DOWN. ??

AUD/USD recovered up to 0.8550 Yesterday., since then it has resumed its down trend  being traded at 0.8450 right now.( Time for this posting)

Technically, AUD/USD should remain in the Bearish zone near term. Fundamentally, nothing will boost its currency in the horizon, It  may get worse due to the Shrinkage in her mineral exports to China,.Further fueled by downfall in the mineral prices.

Looking at the H4,  it shows that it may be a good Sell down Opportunity when it  retrace again to 0.8550-- 0.8570 ( 50% Fibo Retr, or near the top of Ichimoku cloud at 0.8580),

NOTE: On H4, you may spot that there may be a DOUBLE TOPS , breaking below 0.8300 will perfect its Pattern formation later..



Strategy


SELL ON RECOVERY NEAR 0.8550-0.8580


TARGET: 0.8300, FOLLOWED BY 0.8210


H4 Chart

USD/CAD------ HEADING TOWARD PARITY ??

The Bullish sentiments is diminishing on this currency pair USD/CAD.The growing appetite for safe haven currency may send this currency pair USD/CAD into Bearish zone.

On H4 Chart, the formation of Triple Tops is in the making.  However, there will be a strong support at 1.0400, which is the 23.6% Fibo Retracement and  the bottom of Ichimoku Cloud.

Breaking this very important support( 1.0400)  convincingly will send this pair toward the next level 1.0318, and 1.0240 and beyond., . Further more, below 1.0400 will confirm and finalize the beautiful Triple Tops thereafter.

Proposed Strategy 

SELL near                 1.0390-1.0380 

Target :                    1.0300, then 1.0200

OR

BUY  near     1.0400


First Target: 1.0676


The correct use of either one of the above strategies will depend on actual price action (PA), we  cannot predict the outcome but TECHNICALLY,, if Investor appetite for safe haven currency remains to be intact and firmer, then we may see this currency pair heading toward the parity zone again.


H4 chart

               

EURO/USD---- RALLYING TOWARD 1.3000 ??

This Interesting Currency pair EURO/USD is Dramatic / Erratic and Political !
You may review my last week posting on this currency pair from below link :--
http://millionaireclub88.blogspot.com/2010/07/eurousd-130000-or-1-20000.html

Last Friday, it peaked at 1.2605 and closed at 1.2559, with weakening Momentum toward the market close.

On Daily Chart, , breaking  the Friday high at 1.2605  will expose 1.2648, (50% Fibo Retr), and the upward limit shall be capped at 1.2833 (38.2% Fibo Retr)

However, on H1 Chart, Breaking below 1.2400(38.2% Fibo Retr) would expose 1.2290 (28.2 % Fibo Retr), and beyond.

Strategy


BUY ON PULL BACK NEAR 1.2440-1.2460 (DO USE ALL YOUR FAVORITE INDICATORS TO CONFIRM PRIOR TO ENTRY)


SL ===60 -70 PIPS


First Target: 1.2650


Second Target : 1.2800


HI CHART

DAILY CHART

USD/CHF---Heading to PARITY near term ??

The down trend for USD/CHF continued last week with 1.0579 being the Lowest and closed at 1.0617.

Investors viewed Swiss Franc as safe haven without sign of diminishing Sentiments. With current Strong Fundamentals supported by excellent FISCAL Balance Sheet, It may head toward its Parity vs Dollars without the Intervention from SNB( Swiss National Bank ) near term, as highlighted by my last week's posting on CHF.


Looking at the H1, a mild Recovery may be in place toward the 1.0704( 38.2% Fibo Retr),. with the next resistance located near 1.0780.( Note:the Ichimoku cloud top is near 1.0725), before resuming its current descending Bearish Journey to the south.


However, if the PA (price Action) Breaks 1.0850 . being its previous Resistance, then it will be confirmed that this Currency pair has riped for A Strong  Reversal and  will rally toward 1.0900 and beyond. But it will be very remote for this possibility to happen( A reversal back to 1.0900 and beyond).




Strategy 


SELL on mild Recovery near 1.0750--1.0780 (using All your Indicators to confirm Entry)


SL ====60 PIPS


First Target:  1.0600


Second Target: 1.0000 (NOTE: please do not over trade)


Note: Make sure that your Trailing Stops is in place , to maximize your profits in case of SNB's INTERVENTION is being executed.


HI CHART

HAPPY TRADING

JPY----Another Safe Haven Currency is to be INTERVENTED Next ??

Fundamental and Technical Analysis on JPY are listed below:--

Fundamentals
1) Japan monetary base in second quarter was 3.4 % higher than a year earlier. But BOJ Balance sheet asset contracted 6.42 % May/June.
2) Japan 2 year yield is moving in tandem with the Dollars heading to its historical Low, resulting in the elevated pressure on the YEN's rapid appreciation  near terms.
3)Japan is aggressively implementing measures to stimulate internal spending to sustain growth by copying the China's Model, However, the rapid appreciation of her Yen will  result in her decreasing  Export, being detrimental to her modest plan for growth
4) The imminent Intervention from BOJ near term cannot be discarded.You must remember that the current PM ( Mr. Kan) is the Former Finance Minister who are  Strong Advocate for a weaker Yen.
In short, an INTERVENTION may be imminent to stamp the rapid appreciation of Yen.


Technicals
USD/JPY was at 86.96 Low last week.
Referring to the H1/Daily Chart below, the immediate resistance is 90.27.


Above 87.88 (the Ichimoku Cloud Top and Tenkan-sen Resistance) will see the next target 90.27.


However, A break at 87.53 (61,8 % Fibo Retr) may send the price action retesting the next Support 86.96.


In short, Overall neutral with mixed signals.(Also on H4 , the price action is just resting on the Tenkan -sen line near 87.70 on last market's close)




Strategy
On Next Market open, Observe the PA(price action) , and wait for further correction near 87.54 before you execute your Buy order with confirmation from all your favorite Indicators.
Note: 87.54 is the 61.8% Fibo Retr on H1.




H1 Chart usd/jpy

Daily usd/jpy

HAPPY TRADING..

EURO/USD----1.30000 OR 1. 20000 ???

The above statement(Title) looks like a Gambler putting his bet without knowing direction ?? ( A Joke)

O.K.. Let us come back to This interesting Master Currency pair EURO/USD. I will try to condense my thought  to cut down your reading time.

Fundamentals 


Euros is in a crying need to instill investors' confidence to reduce the Issuing cost of their Bond issues which are essential to keep their survival intact. Recent "successful" bid of Spain's 3.5B Auction notes is with much higher cost,, and Spain is having  min. 25B Bond redemption this month. Adding further fuel to the burning house, Moody may downgrade Spain next Month.  Recent reports on the ECB to print more monies(LOANS) for Banks in Spain/Portugal/Italy/ including Greece Shows the Monetary Crisis in European Union are getting worst.


US , HER  poor June ISM numbers is worrying. The housing poor sales further jerks Investor confidence which is aggravated by recent poor job Employment report.
The upcoming NFP is due today (Friday), with a possible 130k job contraction and a rise of Unmployment rate at 9.8%.


Comments:
Basically, the Currency structure(EURO/USD) has been remaining  unchanged since the Last low at 1.1847.   MID /Longer term views on Euros is still very Bearish.


Markets will be slowing down with Low Volatility near the Announcement of NFP. 


Traders should refrain from committing new positions until a direction can be revealed. Last night's spectacular rise of Euro/Usd (350 pips within few hours) is everybody guess. A strong indication is pointing to a possible Intervention from ECB last night  to rescue the Euros(Union), It is a  desperate act  but is a Must.


Technicals and Strategy
Looking at the Daily Chart, The Bull may lift the currency pair  to the next resistance 1.2648(May,2010 High), which is also near the 50% Fibo Retr(From 1.3402 to 1.1847).
Breaking this 1.2648 level may see the pair sighting 1.3040 (23.6% Fibo Retr) , or near the top of Ichimoku Cloud resistance


Technicals show Near Term Bullishness with bullish divergence


On both H4, H1, chart, Technicals are pointing Strong Bullish Near term.


Trade with extra caution with tightened Stop Loss and Trailing Stop from now on till the announcement on upcoming NFP. (0830 EST;; -5  for GMT).  Exit your trade one hour prior to the  NFP release to avoid SPIKES which may be very undesirable.


Having said that, any retracement (quite unlikely near term) below 1.2200 should be a confirming signal for a downturn reversal for testing next low at 1.20000




Daily  EURO/USD  Chart

H4  EURO/USD  chart 

EURO/USD ---- 1.25000, ECB.'s Target ??

Yesterday , we witness a fantastic Intervention feast  by a central Bank BUYING the Euros and supported  their pre set limit  1.25000 (Euro/ USD.) till market close .( 350 pips within 8 hours )

This Intervention act has altered the landscape of the  Euros Crosses temporarily, But how long the Strength of Euros can be sustained at this level  is yet to be seen,

History tells us that artificial Intervention cannot work if  there are no Fundamentals to support it.  The SNB failures to stamp the appreciation of  CHF is a lession to us all.

Fundamentally, the Euros is still BEARISH  near term , and the Euro Currency Structure remains unchanged..

A Review on the latest development will be posted here prior to upcoming Euro session open, ,, especially  in  relating  to the Release of the important  US's  NFP  report.

GBP/USD ------ HEADING TOWARD 1.4500 ??

My recent posting last Saturday on the GBP's  capability to sustain 1.5000 level has the right answer NOW with a firm "NO."  If  you have followed my exact recommendation  and follow strictly as per the proposed set up /Stategy with SL=60 pips.( Sell on Recovery near 1.5060 --1.5090) from this week's market open,,, Then you are ready to collect at least 130 pips till now at 1.4915.

http://millionaireclub88.blogspot.com/2010/06/outlook-on-gbpusd-can-it-sustain-15000.html

It sounds like I am using Crystal Ball To do the prediction, but the answer is strictly "NO". The Principles of Elliot waves and Advanced Structural Forecast and Other Tools are utilized  for this Strategy.  I  would always refrain from using Technical Bombastic words to scare you off, but instead using a simple and strict forward forex language even for newbies in Forex trading.

Back to GBP/USD, Fundamentally, nothing much to offer to stimulate Investor's  Supports,,Technically, The near term for GBP/USD is Bearish,
Breaking below  1.4853( 38.2 % Fibo Retr Level) may send this currency pair toward the next support  at 1.4786 and beyond.


The H4 Chart Below:-

Please note my MIRROR site as :-https://millionaireclub88.wordpress.com/


Happy Trading

NZD---- A new DARLING for Traders ??

NZD/USD continues its Downward journey since this week's market opening, curving  out a BEAUTIFUL Triple Tops an Both H1  and H4 Charts.  A Drop of  almost 340 pips(from 0.7140 to 0.6812 till now),please refer the below Postings from this blog:--

http://millionaireclub88.blogspot.com/2010/06/nzdusd-trade-call-of-week-triple-tops.html

http://millionaireclub88.blogspot.com/2010/06/nzdusd-review-on-its-beautiful-triple.html

In general, NZ government is expected to enforce more convincing  Fiscal policies  to strengthen the economic health of the country. Its effect  from her recent RATE revision has diminished. 

Structurally, the NZD shall be further weakened from now on , unless Investors are happy to see more actions from her Governing Master.

Breaking the important next Support at 0.6770 Convincingly   may send this currency pair NZD/USD knocking the door at 0.6570 !


The H4 Chart below:--

Please note my Mirror site as:https://millionaireclub88.wordpress.com/


Happy trading

CHF--- THE SUPER STAR OF FOREX ??

You should have gained a good 180 pips since this week's market's opening from 1.0930 till now at 1.0755 on USD/CHF, please read this posting from the link:--
http://millionaireclub88.blogspot.com/2010/06/usdchf-will-it-dip-below-09900-if-no.html

The continuation on its strengthening process against both Euro and Dollar is expected.. Swiss Fundamentals are superior,.It continues driving the Safe Haven Demand., The Dollars has retraced about 50% (around 1.0820 )of its gains  since Last   Nov Low.

It has drifted below 1.0800 last night, and so the next immediate TARGET shall be 1.0600.

Swiss Government has done a good job to have no deficit in her Fiscal Balance,and even downgrade her deflation rating recently,  and  please do note that Investors will reward any country trying to live very much below their means.




Please refer to the updated H4 Chart below:

Please note my Mirror Site as :- https://millionaireclub88.wordpress.com/


Happy Trading

Non-Lag MACD and AUTO Fibonacci Pivots INDICATORS Free For Download

As per your strong request, The following  TWO  Indicators are offered here for Download:-

1) Non- Lagging MACD indicator.

This is a highly refined /improved MACD with no Lagging as compared to Normal Default MACD indicator.
You may load this Non Lag MACD Indicator next  to your Normal MACD  and then note the differences and use it for your daily trading. Please note that  this indicator is only meant  for MT 4 platform. Link:--

http://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B74IMi--bRpKZWMxMzY2YzEtZmE0MC00MTFjLTg5MmQtNjU3ZTNiY2I4OTRi&hl=
en&authkey=CNzuvM0G


2) Auto Fibonacci Pivots Generator Indicator
This indicator is applicable to all time frames,.it automatically establish real time Pivots and Fibo level  directly on your PA ( Price Action) Charts,, Link :--

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en&authkey=CM-6ktAG



Procedures for installation on MT4


a) Download the above two files from the above links.
    (Note): Log out from your MT4 before proceed to step (b) below please...
b) Go to "C",, Open your Program Files,, Click the MetaTrader Program, Then Open "expert", then go to "indicator", then insert /paste the above two copied  files (note: the two files shall be located in the "indicator" location.
c) Open your MT 4, Go to "insert" , indicators, custom, then select the two indicators you  just downloaded.
d) the default setting on the MACD is standard (12,24,9)
e) then you are ready for trading




Important Notice
PLEASE DO NOTE THAT YOU ARE EXPECTED TO FEEDBACK YOUR COMMENTS OR PROPOSALS AFTER USE (ABOVE iNDICATORS) , EITHER VIA MY E-MAIL OR POST HERE DIRECTLY FROM THIS POSTING. 
YOUR NON FEEDBACK  MAY LEAD TO HALTING OF UPCOMING INDICATORS SHARING... .... AND I HOPE YOU ALL ENJOY READING MY BLOG,,,,,,,


Please note my MIRROR site as:  https://millionaireclub88.wordpress.com/


HAPPY TRADING

EURO/USD-- WHICH DIRECTION WILL IT BE HEADING TO-- AHEAD OF NFP RELEASE ??

This upcoming movement of this master forex pair EURO/USD is very interesting indeed.

Fundamentally, Euros remains status quo(no change)  since the recent low at 1.1866 , The continuing rising costs for their new Bonds issue  indicate  fading confidence from investors, and More bad news from France Financials and Spain may be imminent.

US upcoming NFP numbers  release on this Friday may not be very encouraging as predicted by various economists.,But overall sentiments on US mild recovery is positive and improving. So USD  is positively biased.

On Technicals, referring to H4, Decisively Breaking the level  1.2245 ( Bottom Ichimoku Cloud Resistance) And  level 1.2209 (The Recent Low).,then shall expose the 1.2111  (61.8% Fibo Retr .from 1.1876 to 1.2490)


Strategy A


SELL NEAR 1.2200 


First Target:1.2111


Second Target : 1.2050




Strategy B


BUY NEAR 1.2230  on Pull back, (100.00 Fibo Retr on H1 CHART)


First Target: 1.2400


SO you have two strategies given by the time of this posting, the correct strategy used is really depending on the above Price Actions,(PA).


H4 Chart below  EURO/USD:- 

HAPPY TRADING