Welcome to my Trading Blog

Disclaimer: This is my personal Blog, reflecting my very own views on Forex , shares and commodity tradings. As such, all informations provided here are barely for information purposes only,. The author should not be held liable for any errors, incomplete information, delayed messages, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.This blog is new, being established on 06,May.2010. While I am executing trades, posting will be sent simultaneously. The date/Time indicated here is of US Pacific zone(++15 Hours for Singapore/KL/Beijing, Or ++7 hours GMT)

Sunday, October 17, 2010

EURO/USD---- Will it reverse and go down below 1.3500 ??

RUMOURS OF A DEAL involving the US delaying the report or not naming China as manipulator IN EXCHANGE for China either revaluing the yuan or allowing it to appreciate faster. As part of any deal, CHINA WOULD NEED THE FED TO ISSUE LESS QE (purchase less treasuries) in order to alleviate the downward spiral of the USD. These talks are a strong reason to the consolidation seen in Thursday/ Friday  FX markets involving USD bounce and yen decline




 The Fed is expected to pump vast quantities of freshly printed dollars into the money markets, in a bid to lower long-term Treasury yields lower. The markets have already discounted the probability of at least $500-billion of QE-2 injections. On the surface, the Fed’s propaganda artists say they aim to prevent a deflationary collapse and stave off a “double-dip” recession. However, clandestinely, the Fed is monetizing the federal government’s debt and is prepared to buy the Treasury notes that Beijing decides to dump should a full scale Chinese-US trade war erupt. 

 So far, however, the ECB has limited its purchases of distressed sovereign bonds to 60-billion euros, and these purchases were largely sterilized, thus helping the euro to rebound to $1.400 last week. 
Also helping the euro to rebound sharply versus the US$, was the frequent drumbeat of implied threats by the Fed to unleash QE-2, and public calls of support for the euro by China’s premier Wen Jiaboa



A further rise in the eruo’s value against the Chinese yuan and the US-dollar could further undermine global demand for the eurozone’s industrial exports, which prompted the eurozone’s finance chief Jean-Claude Juncker to warn on October 8th, “The euro is too strong today,” as it crossed $1.400, ahead of a meeting of finance ministers and central bankers of the G-7 clique


Behind the scenes, the Fed engineered the euro’s recovery by submerging the yield on the US-Treasury’s 5-year note below Germany’s 5-year bund yields. So far, the ECB has refused to intervene to halt the euro’s rally. The ECB is skeptical in principle of interventions, - buying and selling currencies to affect exchange rates. However, if the Fed signals a larger than expected blast of QE-2 in November, the euro could climb higher, and complaints from eurozone industrialists would follow. At that point, the ECB might cast aside its principles, and begin printing euros and start buying bonds denominated in foreign currencies.

Euro – The single currency lost some ground on Friday after Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota offered the notion that further quantitative easing might have a muted impact than anticipated. Ahead of Friday’s more important U.S. events the euro has slipped to $1.4076 having reached $1.4113 earlier in the day. Christian Noyer of the ECB’s governing council noted on Friday that governments and central bankers need to find a way of solution to the disorderly nature of currency movements.

the Federal Reserve remains committed to pursuing policies that promote our dual objectives of maximum employment and price stability. In particular, the FOMC is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation over time to levels consistent with our mandate. 

in the past few weeks, entirely driven by QE2 expectations. The expectations are so high that inflation is finally being priced in (see 30-yr bonds, commodities, and gold), and Bernanke would have to do it even if he had a change of religion tonight, or else. The only question is when and how much. While I don't know the answer, I'm sure it lies somewhere between a dog and a fire hydrant. If QE2 is not big enough to cause another 10% drop in the dollar index, it'll snap back 10% along with equities/gold/commodities crashing through a significant correction. If it is big enough to meet the markets' insane expectations, it will most likely kick the currency war into full speed and start the sequence that leads to the dollar's death as the international reserve currency.




In countries where there is a huge deficit the only solution to pay back debts is through a devalued currency. Japan has recently intervened to try to devalue the strengthening yen. A strengthening currency to countries with huge obligations can heighten the risk of default which many countries are facing. Also, a strong currency puts pressure on international corporations who export products abroad. A weak dollar will cause the products to be more expensive to American consumers which will hurt demand and growth. More sovereign debt defaults in emerging markets are expected. It appears that from the European Debt Crisis that many investors ran to the dollar from the Euro. I expect something similar to occur now. The Euro is overbought and the U.S. dollar is reaching long term support. The Euro is reaching a key resistance level and is overbought. This means a pullback should occur. The U.S. Dollar is extremely oversold and at long term support. The bearish sentiment on the U.S. Dollar is extremely bearish which indicates a reversal should occur.


the investment community is expecting too much from the Fed and it appears the Fed is doing an excellent job stimulating the markets just through speculation of a move rather than the actual move itself.
This last easing from the Fed has met with some more critics and it has definitely increased international tensions. The U.S. dollar has collapsed and is now testing long term support.

. If QE2 is not big enough to cause another 10% drop in the dollar index, it'll snap back 10% along with equities/gold/commodities crashing through a significant correction. If it is big enough to meet the markets' insane expectations, it will most likely kick the currency war into full speed and start the sequence that leads to the dollar's death as the international reserve 
currency.




The Euro is overbought and the U.S. dollar is reaching long term support. The Euro is reaching a key resistance level and is overbought. This means a pullback should occur. The U.S. Dollar is extremely oversold and at long term support. The bearish sentiment on the U.S. Dollar is extremely bearish which indicates a reversal should occur.


Technically the dollar is due for a bounce ,and investors should look for any pullbacks in gold and silver as a buy point. 
Instead of the risk associated with buying bullion at these extended prices, many juniors who would be extremely profitable at lower gold and silver prices have not broken out yet.


Euro//Usd Daily Chart







Euro/Usd  H4  Chart


On the Daily Chart, we observe that a possible Top may have been stamped near 1.4155, which is not 100% Confirmed. Wave Being marked 5  is near 1.4250, which may have been prematurely attained at.   This currency pair may now  reverse to the next level near 1.3555 (61.8% Fibo Retr)
The fact that Euro/Usd could not sustain at 1.4000 on last Friday Close may signal a reversal from that point, 


On the H4 Chart with Ichimoku,we do note that 1.3880 is the Ichimoku Cloud Top support
(Which is also quite near the 1.3865 , being the 23.6% Fibo Retr). , Breaching this important Support will expose this currency pair toward 1.3790 (also near the 0.00% Fibo Retr.) , Follows by 1.3580.( All indicators are showing Bearing Sentiments near term)


Usd/Jpy---- will it reverse back toward 85.00 near term ??

Yen and Dollars are almost at their respective low interest (near 0%) in decades. . If any strong reversal is being effected on Dollars , then it may trigger the immediate BOJ currency intervention which may be extremely effective to further weaken the Yen .

The USD/YEN  has been lingering near the 81.00-82.00 over an extended period due to the imminent dollar weakness. And bearing in mind that Yen is excessively overbought for a long time.  Technically , it should be the right time for its reversal.

The reversal can be very violent (may exceed 300-500 pips ) within a short trading duration, As such, all Traders are reminded to be extra cautious on this possible abrupt reversal.

Any breaching over the level 82.90(61.8% Fibo Retr) will confirm its strong reversal, and follows by 84.26 (38.2% Fibo Retr), and then 86.35 (0.00% Fibo Retr)








USD/JPY Daily Chart 



Gbp/Usd ---will it breach 1.6500 near term ??

Sterling remains well bid on an otherwise data-free day to end a week in which the currency has fallen to a six-month low versus the euro. At the same time the unit has strengthened against the dollar to an eight-month high. Market stories suggest a large euro/sterling sell order connected to a company dividend payment is keeping the euro pinned down while bolstering the pound against the dollar at $1.6051. The euro buys 87.72 pence. The pound has performed well during the week despite signs that the labor market is losing steam while consumer confidence is also stalling. Next week the coalition government will unveil spending plans in an effort to reduce the sizeable budget deficit currently running at an equivalent 11% of GDP.

The Bank of England is likely to follow the US QE  PROGRAMME  despite the fact that inflation has now exceeded the official policy ceiling of 3% for seven months in a row now. Unlike that of the U.S., the British government is taking budget control rather seriously in progress austerity measures are likely to weigh heavily on the ability of the economy to weather the storm.Still, it’s hard to see how weaker economic activity ahead will permit inflation to remain as high. The pound rose against the dollar to $1.6098


Daily Chart  Gbp/Usd

H4 chart GBP/USD


H4 Chart with Ichimoku






The trend for GBP/USD is bullish in longer  term. Looking at the Daily Chart, wait for its retracement  near the support trendline(Red in Color), and to set up a Long trade for a possible 1.6105(0.00% Fibo Retr) and then follows by possible 1.6500 , (1.618 Fibo Extension)

On the H4 Chart with Ichimoku, we expect GBP/USD  to retrace near the Ichimoku Cloud top Resistance, near 1.5890, (or the 23,6 Fibo Retr), before it surges up toward the 1.6500 target on longer term.

AUD/USD--- to be capped near 1.0150 before plunging down ??

The Aussie rode the greenback’s weakness hard once again and the local dollar was inspired by a reading of consumer inflation expectations that appears to but the official 2-3% inflation range set by the RBA out of reach. The 3.8% reading of consumer price expectations from the Melbourne Institute for Social and Economic Research is unwelcome news for the central bank but for now having raised rates to 4.5% it can possibly be glossed over while the Federal Reserve determines how to stimulate the world’s largest economy.

. The ascent marks an eighth straight week of gains for the currency against the dollar but with the unit today trading at around 0.9995 . Nevertheless enthusiasm for the local dollar remains strong heading into the weekend. The Aussie remains underpinned by recent events in which a decline in the value of the greenback set against the background of advances in Asian demand has boosted the price the country achieves for its mineral and commodity exports. The tone remains buoyant with expectations of an imminent assault on the $1.00 mark. Lifting the Aud/usd currency pair beyond 1.0150 cannot be discarded near term.



Daily Chart AUD/USD

Aud/Usd H4 Chart

The AUD/USD currency pair is rather bullish near term, 

On the Daily Chart with trend line, the upper trend line(in red) and wave marked "5" may be crossed near 1.0150  maximum, prior to its  Bearish reversal 

On the H4 Chart, hitting below 0.9730 , being the Ichimoku Cloud Bottom Support ( also near the 23,6 %  Fibo Retr) will confirm its bearish reversal., with first Target being 0.9691 (0.00 % Fibo Retr) , follows by 0.9539(its recent low)

USD/CHF----when will it reverse back above 1.0000 ??

Weekly Chart USD/CHF



Daily Chart USD/CHF



USD/CHF has touched 0.9455 last week , indicating a bottom may have been attained,

On the Daily Chart, R3(Resistance ) is 0.96501, breaching this level and its next level 0.9721 (its next recent High as resistance), then REVERSAL is confirmed.

On the Weekly Chart, we note that  a Double Bottom/ Triple Bottom  pattern is being carved out, really for a Bullish reversal soon.

Usd/Cad------will it be back to 1.0600 level near term ??

Dealers continue to flock towards the Canadian dollar. Buoyed by rising commodity prices of its major exports, the loonie also finds favor from global central banks and governments as a solid bet. The Canadian government might well be the first amongst G7 governments to return to a balanced budget within five years. The Canadian unit stands at 99.88 U.S. cents having peered through parity earlier to reach $1.0005 cents. The unit has taken just about six months to cross its own little line in the sand against the greenback.

Subdued inflationary pressures would confirm the market’s doubts that the Bank of Canada would be willing to continue the campaign of interest rate hikes for the rest of the year. The inflation gauge could see a small increase by 0.1% m/m, compared with the 0.1% m/m decline in the previous month.

If the expected Dollars reversal is in place in upcoming week, then the bullish USD/CAD  can be expected. 


Daily Usd/Cad Chart 


The usd/cad is expected to be capped near 0.9930-0.9950. A breaching of the 1.0150 (Marked in red line) will confirm its reversal toward 1.0600 level.

NZD/USD ---will it hit beyond 0.8000 near term ??

Rising inflationary pressures could improve the odds of a rate hike as early as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next meeting on October 28, especially if the inflation gauge registers a larger than the 0.3% q/q increase in the previous quarter. 

 Her neighbor Autralian Aud  is now heading toward Parity vs the Dollars, lifting Nzd//Usd to the next higher level., As the AUD/USD is limited on the upside, but potential for NZD/USD remains to be a better bet near 0.8000 level








Daily Chart on NZD/USD 






The Chart above indicates  that the a-b-c of the pattern,  And location of C , if extended with the upper trendline, it will be almost  CROSSED near 0.8000. The indicators are bullish near term.

Sunday, October 10, 2010

USD/CAD ---Will it breach 0.9900 near term ??

The imminent weakness of Dollars and the relatively good commodity prices including Crude shall push this currency pair  USD/CAD  down to below parity near term.

Looking at the Daily chart with trend lines, we observe that the Triple -Tops pattern have been formed  and all the Bearish divergence indicators are pointing toward below Parity near term.

The Resistance is near 1.0360(50% Fibo), and strong support is at 0.9900( Its recent Low) .


Daily Chart on USD/CAD showing the Triple-Tops