NZD/USD ---will it hold above 0.7000 near term ??

The Prime Minister of New Zealand IS hoping for a reduction of interest rates,  , the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could deliver a rate cut by 0.25%, bringing the benchmark rate to 2.75% from 3.0%. If the central bank does not cut its rate, , the New Zealand dollar could find an opportunity to correct some of its recent losses. 


THE DECISION WILL BE MADE ON Wed., Mar. 9, 3:00 pm, ET. 

 Despite the full market pricing of the RBNZ rate cut, NZD could lose more ground in the event that risk appetite falls on the defensive later in the week.

On the H4 chart, Support 1 is 0.7350, below this level , the PA may confirm its bearishness

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On the Daily Chart below, the completion of ab-cd  pattern may see resulting PA near 0.7250 which is also  the 50% Fibo Retr LEVEL on the Weekly chart, 

On the weekly chart, 0.7100 is the 38.2% Fibo Retr level which is a strong support as evident by the AUD/NZD daily chart showing its capping level near 1.3850 areas

H 4 NZD/USD

Daily Nzd/Usd 

Weekly NZD/Usd

Daily AUD/NZD 

Usd/Chf--heading below 0.90000 near term ??

Swiss Franc benefits from Both Risk aversion activities  and safe heaven status . Near term Swiss franc and Yen may be the star of FX during this  Middle East Crisis( Libya And Saudi).
Fundamentally, Swiss Franc is well supported by her positive data and growth numbers.

Daily Chart USD/CHF

From the chart above, next trend line support is near 0.9200, follows by 0.9120(R 3, with Pivot 0.9261) which if broken decisively, the PA may send this pair to 0.9000 being its psychological level.
we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305(2000 high) to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946(near 0.9000 too)

Euros/Usd--will its bullish momentum be sustained beyond 1.4200 ??

The conflict in Libya is worsening, and the potential demonstration and unrest in Saudi Arabia in the next few days are making all Traders sleepless with the surge in Vix index.The possibility of oil hitting 150 per barrel cannot be discarded near term.
Until oil prices show some signs of pullback, the rally is likely over unless the markets can find new fundamental reasons that suggest growth can continue 
Last week, after an initial, 100 pip (0.72%) rise to the 1.3950 area, the EUR made little upward progress and being rejected near 1.4000. This suggests that much of the news was already priced in. It also raises questions about how much near term upward energy the EUR has.
Most of the rate hike expectations have now been priced in, leaving continued EUR up trends depending on rising risk appetite.
However, Risk appetite may not be also driven by the unclear growth futures of the entire economy if the high price of oil  holds for a longer duration.
Thus while we must respect and continue to trade with the EUR’s near term up trend, we must suspect it’s durability and be ready to play the short side on any signs of profit taking.


This coming Friday’s EU economic summit, and may spark new volatility in the EUR pairs, especially with the Euro already overbought in the near term., Considering the movement of the newly elected Irish Government, the upcoming Local Germany election, and the pending announcements on the EC on bond and further rescue policy for Greece, Spain, Portugal.




Daily Euro/Usd Chart 

The above chart shows the Resistance at 1.4040, and support near 1.3850. PA for the next few trading days are expected to be volatile, but the Bullish momentum is still intact as long as the 1.3850 is sustained.
The possible lifting of Euro/Usd on the completion of ab-cd pattern may see it retest the next target near 1.4300 areas.
Watch out clues from S&P 500 movements and the oil price volatility  and the possible unrest in Saudi and the upcoming EU summit this Friday.

Dollar Index---to be capped minimum near 75.50 near term ??

Daily Dollar index chart

The dollar index continues its South bound journey towards the immediate Support (R3) near 76.10, follows by a next support near 75.64(or 75.50).Bearish Divergence on all indicators affirms its bearish momentum.

There is still no sign of reversal near term unless PA lifts the index above 78.25(61.80% Fibo Retr.) basing on the Daily chart on last Friday Closing.(at this level, Index$$,  Euros/Usd may be possible near  1.3500).