- As expected from the good UK Q3 GDP data, the BoE took no further steps towards more stimulus.
- This week’s inflation report includes BoE forecasts for inflation and growth for the next 2 years that take into account anticipated austerity measures including deep spending cuts and a rise in VAT. In the prior August Inflation report, the BoE predicted inflation for 2013 between 1-2%, indicating that the Bank anticipated deflation and was thus leaning towards new stimulus.
- However growth surprised to the upside in the third quarter and commodity prices have risen – the oil price is up 20% in the last three months. If future inflation expectations are revised higher on Tuesday then chances for new QE drop further, which would likely spark a further GBPUSD rally to 1.63 or even a challenge of 2009 highs around 1.65.
H4 Chart GBP/USD
Weekly Chart GBP/USD
On the H4 CHART, breaching the Pivot at 1.6213 may expose this currency pair towards 1.6162(R1) and 1.6293 (R2 )., follows by the possible recent high at 1.6500.
However, breaking the strong trend line Support near 1.6000 may send this currency pair below 1.5865 (23.6% Fibo Retr.), or below the Ichimoku Cloud Bottom Support @1.5868 on H4 Chart).
No comments:
Post a Comment