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Sunday, December 5, 2010

Euro/Usd------ Heading towards the next Resistance near 1.3780 ??

The disappointing US November jobs report (+39K NFP vs. +145K consensus and +0.2 pt increase in unemployment rate to 9.8% vs. 9.6% consensus) adds to expectations of full QE2, thereby sending US 10 year yields back below 3% and weighing on the USD across the board.
On the positive side, the Nov jobs report showed the first back-to-back monthly increase in jobs since April-May. EURUSD makes a vital rebound above $1.3410, lifting 3.2% off this weeks 3-month lows of $1.2980.
Next weeks Irish budget may be among the remaining obstacles for EUR sentiment, followed by Spain auctions (Dec 14-16). In order for EURUSD to break off its 5-week downtrend, it must attain a close above $1.3420-30 next week, which coincides with the important 55-week MA as well as the lows of Nov 15-16 and the low from Sep 28. Subsequent technical barriers for the euro stand at $1.3780. 


H4 Euro/Usd Chart 




Daily Euro/Usd Chart




From the H4 Chart, 1.3428 is the Ichimoku Cloud  top Resistance,, but RSI / MACD and Stochastic are bullish near term.


From the Daily Chart, we note that 1.3618 is the 50% Fibo Retr level, , Breaking above it will expose 1.3780 , which is both the Ichimoku Cloud Top resistance and the 38.2 % Fibo Retr  level.(All indicators are pointing Bullish near term)

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