Gold is to retest 1600 Support near term ??

Gold has climbed rather slowly over last three months without any significant retracement.

The imminent strengthening of Dollars and weakness in Euros may trigger the rapid decline of Gold as  similar in September month this year.

However, as long as the trend line support is intact , we will not expect its rapid weakening  unless the immediate Support  near 1741.50 ( Ichimoku Bottom Support),  and 1735.00 ( its recent Low) are breached.

 And Breaking Both  Supports may expose 1600.00 next.

Gbp/Jpy is to retest its recent Low at 117.00 near term ?

Technically, the currency pair Gbp/Jpy is now testing the support at 120.80 ( 38.2% Fibo Retr) inside the Ichimoku Cloud in the Daily Chart.

The next immediate Ichimoku Cloud bottom support located near 120.00, and breaking it may reveal the recent Low near 116.50.


Fundamentally, the all time strengthening of Jpy and the imminent weakness on Gbp near term may speed up the bearish decent rather rapidly.

Euro/Chf is to retest its recent Low near 1.2130 again ?

The endless problems on  political/ economic / Bond spread and upsurging Bond yield over 7.0% , and with free pouring of bad news from EU, we predict that the Euros -Chf  currency pegging policy may fail rather quickly.

The currency Pair Euro/Chf has stalled near the 1.2450- 1.2420 region which may signal the formation of Temporary Top.

The Trading indicators on Longer term time frames (H4, Daily, Weekly) have shown bearish divergence.

We predict that Euros/Chf currency pair may retest the 1.2300 shortly, the Ichimoku Cloud top support on the H4 / Daily Chart.. The breaching of this support may expose the recent Low near 1.2100-1.2000

Gbp/Usd is to retest its support near 1.5540 soon ?

The economic calender on GBP is heavy on this Wednesday (Today).

We predict the downgrading of Economic growth numbers by more than -1.0%, and the Employment may hit sky high above expected numbers.

With the risk aversion momentum and the relative (positive) up move of Dollars right now, , we therefore expect the currency pair Gbp/Usd will go down considerably which is also conformed by the Chart Indicators in Bearish momentum..

Technically, The currency pair will retest the 1.5710 support (Support #3 on the chart)., and  Breaching this level may expose the next structural support at 1.5543  rather quickly.

Euro/Usd to breach 1.30000 by end of November ?

The  positive  retail sales numbers especially the Autos Sales  has strengthened  the Dollars.
Tomorrow, the Italian new PM Monti is to announce his new economic policy which has slowed down the dumping of Euros upfront..
The  weak Spanish auction, and the  Italian 10-year yields back over 7.3% and blowouts in periphery spreads have brought negative sentiments to Euros too.


Technically, the Euro/Usd is now retesting the structural support near 1.3360( See the Attached Daily chart). The bearish sentiments with  confirmation from all the Indicators are pointing down towards the psychological 1.30000 level near terms

The wave "e" has been the forecast dip near /below 1.3000 near term,

Aud/Usd is to retest its next support near 0.9528-0.9500?

Technically,  the Weekly chart shows that  Aud/Usd currency pair is now submerging in the Ichimoku Cloud , testing both the Supports 1.0045(38.2% Fibo Retr) and 0.9774 (23.6% Fibo Retr), and  breaking both these supports may expose the Critical Ichimoku Cloud bottom supports near 0.9528.

The seemingly Double top formation (near May and July 2011) has further enhanced  the Bearish sentiments on this Aud/Usd currency pair near terms.

Longer terms we forecast the Aud/Usd may go down near 0.9500 by December , 2011

NZD/USD ---will it hold above 0.7000 near term ??

The Prime Minister of New Zealand IS hoping for a reduction of interest rates,  , the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could deliver a rate cut by 0.25%, bringing the benchmark rate to 2.75% from 3.0%. If the central bank does not cut its rate, , the New Zealand dollar could find an opportunity to correct some of its recent losses. 


THE DECISION WILL BE MADE ON Wed., Mar. 9, 3:00 pm, ET. 

 Despite the full market pricing of the RBNZ rate cut, NZD could lose more ground in the event that risk appetite falls on the defensive later in the week.

On the H4 chart, Support 1 is 0.7350, below this level , the PA may confirm its bearishness

.

On the Daily Chart below, the completion of ab-cd  pattern may see resulting PA near 0.7250 which is also  the 50% Fibo Retr LEVEL on the Weekly chart, 

On the weekly chart, 0.7100 is the 38.2% Fibo Retr level which is a strong support as evident by the AUD/NZD daily chart showing its capping level near 1.3850 areas

H 4 NZD/USD

Daily Nzd/Usd 

Weekly NZD/Usd

Daily AUD/NZD 

Usd/Chf--heading below 0.90000 near term ??

Swiss Franc benefits from Both Risk aversion activities  and safe heaven status . Near term Swiss franc and Yen may be the star of FX during this  Middle East Crisis( Libya And Saudi).
Fundamentally, Swiss Franc is well supported by her positive data and growth numbers.

Daily Chart USD/CHF

From the chart above, next trend line support is near 0.9200, follows by 0.9120(R 3, with Pivot 0.9261) which if broken decisively, the PA may send this pair to 0.9000 being its psychological level.
we'd expect next long term target to be 61.8% projection of 1.8305(2000 high) to 1.1288 from 1.3283 at 0.8946(near 0.9000 too)

Euros/Usd--will its bullish momentum be sustained beyond 1.4200 ??

The conflict in Libya is worsening, and the potential demonstration and unrest in Saudi Arabia in the next few days are making all Traders sleepless with the surge in Vix index.The possibility of oil hitting 150 per barrel cannot be discarded near term.
Until oil prices show some signs of pullback, the rally is likely over unless the markets can find new fundamental reasons that suggest growth can continue 
Last week, after an initial, 100 pip (0.72%) rise to the 1.3950 area, the EUR made little upward progress and being rejected near 1.4000. This suggests that much of the news was already priced in. It also raises questions about how much near term upward energy the EUR has.
Most of the rate hike expectations have now been priced in, leaving continued EUR up trends depending on rising risk appetite.
However, Risk appetite may not be also driven by the unclear growth futures of the entire economy if the high price of oil  holds for a longer duration.
Thus while we must respect and continue to trade with the EUR’s near term up trend, we must suspect it’s durability and be ready to play the short side on any signs of profit taking.


This coming Friday’s EU economic summit, and may spark new volatility in the EUR pairs, especially with the Euro already overbought in the near term., Considering the movement of the newly elected Irish Government, the upcoming Local Germany election, and the pending announcements on the EC on bond and further rescue policy for Greece, Spain, Portugal.




Daily Euro/Usd Chart 

The above chart shows the Resistance at 1.4040, and support near 1.3850. PA for the next few trading days are expected to be volatile, but the Bullish momentum is still intact as long as the 1.3850 is sustained.
The possible lifting of Euro/Usd on the completion of ab-cd pattern may see it retest the next target near 1.4300 areas.
Watch out clues from S&P 500 movements and the oil price volatility  and the possible unrest in Saudi and the upcoming EU summit this Friday.

Dollar Index---to be capped minimum near 75.50 near term ??

Daily Dollar index chart

The dollar index continues its South bound journey towards the immediate Support (R3) near 76.10, follows by a next support near 75.64(or 75.50).Bearish Divergence on all indicators affirms its bearish momentum.

There is still no sign of reversal near term unless PA lifts the index above 78.25(61.80% Fibo Retr.) basing on the Daily chart on last Friday Closing.(at this level, Index$$,  Euros/Usd may be possible near  1.3500).

Euro/Usd--- Latest update on trading ideas

Daily Euro/Usd Chart

looking at the above daily chart, we do observe that the range between 1.3860 and 1.3716 holds for the past few trading sessions.  and the LOWER Trendline is also very close to the 1.3700 till the NFP  on this coming Friday's Release. I do predict that Euro/Usd will trade within this range for the next 2-3 days, before any decisive movement beyond this range can be effected.

Please do refer to my last posting below on the Euro/Usd Trading ideas


I repeat that a decisive breaking the upper range level at 1.3860 shall drive this currency pair beyond 1.4000 near terms

A poor NFP report will accelerate the bullish momentum with target close to 1.4200 areas. Likewise, any positive news from Euro Unions this week will see this currency pair being lifted beyond 1.4200.

Euros/Usd ---will it go beyond 1.4000 near term ??

Higher Oil price due to unstable oil producing nations in East-North Africa and Saudis  is worrying. The budding improvement in the US recovery may be seriously curtailed, and may be wiped out completely. This may result in the introducing of possible QE 3 in the US.Any economic contraction would least favor the U.S. consumer and discourage the Fed from changing its policy mix.


ECB will convene a meeting on March 3, and  Officials have sounded increasingly hawkish in recent weeks. That rhetoric is likely to translate into action. It may put the market on notice by acknowledging it no longer forecasts inflation to fall back below the 2% level this year.  The talk on the possibility of Interest rise cannot be ignored.
Over the past week alone, the German 2-year yield rose more than 20 bp as the market priced less accommodative conditions


Germany, with France’s support, has put forward a number of proposals to enhance euro zone competitiveness and the POLITICAL implication has a higher effect on Euros Strength which will be visible in the various Euros zone meetings in March.
it is likely Portugal will become the third member to seek an assistance package. The relaxed terms that will be given to Greece and Ireland will be given to Portugal. and recently sentiments towards Spain has improved, All in all, the Sentiments on Euros has vastly improved.


On March 4, if The Non-Farm Payroll data is deteriorating, then it may reflect the poor recovery in the US economies, and the OE3 possibility may be enhanced.  And Then we may have a Political Storm over the approaching federal debt ceiling IN THE NEXT UPCOMING WEEKS.


Summing up, The Euros strength is positively biased near term Fundamentally.


Daily EURO/USD Chart

H4 euros/usd chart

From Daily chart above, we envisage that the completion of ab-cd  pattern may see the PA near 1.4100-1.4200. The current Bullish momentum is still intact. 1.3700 is a strong support, and the daily chart strong Resistance is near zone  1.3820-1.3860.Breaking this resistance areas may see 1.4100 level and beyond.,  please observe both the Upper and lower trend lines on the Daily Chart.


On both the H1/H4 charts, bullish momentum is still intact.


Overall trend on the Euros/Usd is Bullish Technically 

Swiss Franc---the King of fx ---will usd/chf heading below 0.9000 near term ??

The Swiss economy appears fairly resilient in the face of the strength of the Swiss franc.
The Swiss Franc clearly benefited from its position as a safe haven and that is the clearest indication of world unrest.
Fundamentally, we expect continuous strengthening of Swiss Franc near term AT TARGET NEAR 0.9000 in the midst of weakening Dollars and unstable Euros.


Weekly Usd/Chf Chart

Daily Usd/Chf Chart

From the Weekly Chart, the completion of ab-cd pattern may see 0.9150-0.9200 . And please do note that the swing low/high on the weekly chart indicate that 1.2700  Fibo extension is also near 0.9200 areas.
Right now the PA has entered a territory of multi-months Low, and the Risk aversion activities may acccelerate the declination toward the psychological level near 0.9000.


The weekly pivot is now at 0.9300 and the weekly resistance is near 0.9450 (R1).WHICH SHALL SERVE AS A STRONG RESISTANCE LEVELS.

Gbp/Usd-- to continue its Bullishness beyond 1.6500 ??

The pressure to tighten the monetary policy is increasing on the BOE.
MPC minutes revealed a third call for a rate rise  responding to a fourteenth consecutive monthly breach of the Bank’s 2% inflation target. The downgrade to growth in today’s revised report alleviated some of that pressure as investors pondered the importance of growth over inflation as the key catalyst
The Bank of England WILL AGAIN meet on March 10.Although sterling is not always driven by economic data, given the range of opinion on the MPC, in the weeks ahead it might be more sensitive to  data. The slow down data in fourth Quarter may stop  the rise of Sterling temporarily.
But the factor on the possible interest rate  revision from BOE cannot be discarded near term


H4 Gbp/Usd Chart

Weekly Gbp/Usd Chart

Basing on the Weekly Chart, the pivot is 1.6140, and S1 and S2 are 1.6000 and 1.5890 respectively. The R1 and R2 are 1.6250 and 1.6385 respectively.
Currently, the Bullish momentum is still intact. as shown in the upper trend line support. As the Sterling is extremely sensitive to economic data, (see above comments), we have to watch this currency pair carefully in the next 24 hours as reflected in the Risk aversion plays.
A decisive break above 1.6350 may see 1.6500 which is the psychological level.
However, a break below 1.5890 may confirm Bearish reversal.
I would recommend to long Gbp/usd prior to market opening on Monday Morning

Usd/Cad--will it go below 0.9500 near term ??

The excessive high price of the oil  provides a tonic for the strengthening of Canadian dollars.
The Canadian dollar might have found further strength  as pre-market stock index futures staged a health rebound after two days of heavy selling last Friday.
Generally, Canadian Dollars is in better shape as compared to US dollars, even though the  
rising oil prices will depress global growth and especially so given the nation’s reliance on the U.S. consumer


Weekly USD/CAD CHART

 Weekly Usd/Cad Chart

Daily USD/CAD Chart

Looking at both the weekly charts above, you may observe that the the formation of extreme bearish Butterfly pattern, with bearish momentum targeted at 0.9708 (First Target), follows by 0.9051(Second target), being the multi-month low target.
The weekly S1 and S2 are 0.9720 and 0.9660 respectively, And the R1 and R2 being 0.9900 and 1.0000 respectively, with Pivot be 0.9840(Weekly)


The Usd/Cad pair is now in very bearish momentum  heading towards 0.9000 multi-months low

Tomorrow Wednesday Top Economic News Release affectiog Gbp and Dollars

1.0)  GBP- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Minutes


Wed., Feb. 23, 4:30 am, ET. 


high inflation and the threat of economic slowdown as a result of the U.K. government’s massive spending cuts create a difficult situation for the Bank of England policy makers.  But we expect that the  interest rate shall be maintained.
However, if more policy makers have joined the camp of the two “rate hawks” Andrew Sentance and Martin Weale, the market could continue to price expectations for an interest rate increase in the near future. 


We suspect the odds favor some near term disappointment and thus a GBP pullback unless the other UK events mentioned below or overall risk appetite spur new optimism and keep rate hike hopes elevated.






2.0) USD- U.S. Existing Home Sales,


Wed., Feb. 23, 10:00 am, ET. 




the main gauge of the condition of the U.S. housing market measuring the number of closed sales of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops . the sales of existing homes could also inch higher to 5.3 M in January from 5.28 M in December. 

For the past week the EURUSD trend was higher despite all the bad EUR news (the pair followed falling USD short term rates relative to those of the EUR traders, so assume more uptrend and that traders should do the opposite in the near term and go long the above instruments until we see evidence of a trend reversal lower for the EUR. Binary option traders maintain bias to calls on the EUR pairs and EU stocks and indexes until we see evidence of a trend change.