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Sunday, February 27, 2011

Gbp/Usd-- to continue its Bullishness beyond 1.6500 ??

The pressure to tighten the monetary policy is increasing on the BOE.
MPC minutes revealed a third call for a rate rise  responding to a fourteenth consecutive monthly breach of the Bank’s 2% inflation target. The downgrade to growth in today’s revised report alleviated some of that pressure as investors pondered the importance of growth over inflation as the key catalyst
The Bank of England WILL AGAIN meet on March 10.Although sterling is not always driven by economic data, given the range of opinion on the MPC, in the weeks ahead it might be more sensitive to  data. The slow down data in fourth Quarter may stop  the rise of Sterling temporarily.
But the factor on the possible interest rate  revision from BOE cannot be discarded near term


H4 Gbp/Usd Chart


Weekly Gbp/Usd Chart






Basing on the Weekly Chart, the pivot is 1.6140, and S1 and S2 are 1.6000 and 1.5890 respectively. The R1 and R2 are 1.6250 and 1.6385 respectively.
Currently, the Bullish momentum is still intact. as shown in the upper trend line support. As the Sterling is extremely sensitive to economic data, (see above comments), we have to watch this currency pair carefully in the next 24 hours as reflected in the Risk aversion plays.
A decisive break above 1.6350 may see 1.6500 which is the psychological level.
However, a break below 1.5890 may confirm Bearish reversal.
I would recommend to long Gbp/usd prior to market opening on Monday Morning

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