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Disclaimer: This is my personal Blog, reflecting my very own views on Forex , shares and commodity tradings. As such, all informations provided here are barely for information purposes only,. The author should not be held liable for any errors, incomplete information, delayed messages, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.This blog is new, being established on 06,May.2010. While I am executing trades, posting will be sent simultaneously. The date/Time indicated here is of US Pacific zone(++15 Hours for Singapore/KL/Beijing, Or ++7 hours GMT)

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Euro/Usd------ Heading towards the next Resistance near 1.3780 ??

The disappointing US November jobs report (+39K NFP vs. +145K consensus and +0.2 pt increase in unemployment rate to 9.8% vs. 9.6% consensus) adds to expectations of full QE2, thereby sending US 10 year yields back below 3% and weighing on the USD across the board.
On the positive side, the Nov jobs report showed the first back-to-back monthly increase in jobs since April-May. EURUSD makes a vital rebound above $1.3410, lifting 3.2% off this weeks 3-month lows of $1.2980.
Next weeks Irish budget may be among the remaining obstacles for EUR sentiment, followed by Spain auctions (Dec 14-16). In order for EURUSD to break off its 5-week downtrend, it must attain a close above $1.3420-30 next week, which coincides with the important 55-week MA as well as the lows of Nov 15-16 and the low from Sep 28. Subsequent technical barriers for the euro stand at $1.3780. 


H4 Euro/Usd Chart 




Daily Euro/Usd Chart




From the H4 Chart, 1.3428 is the Ichimoku Cloud  top Resistance,, but RSI / MACD and Stochastic are bullish near term.


From the Daily Chart, we note that 1.3618 is the 50% Fibo Retr level, , Breaking above it will expose 1.3780 , which is both the Ichimoku Cloud Top resistance and the 38.2 % Fibo Retr  level.(All indicators are pointing Bullish near term)

Usd/Cad--- ready to go bullish Reversal towards 1.0300 ??

The Canadian economic activity is forecast to pick up with an Ivey index reading of 59.3 from 56.7 in the previous month. 
Although economic activity has improved and inflationary pressures have increased recently, the Bank of Canada is expected to refrain from raising interest rates as policy makers prudently allow some time to assess domestic and global economic conditions, and decide whether to extend their campaign of rate hikes into 2011.
The Bank of Canada also announces rates Tuesday and is likely to keep them steady at 1% given that economic growth has stalled. Stagnant job creation in the U.S., Canada’s largest trading partner, as shown by the very disappointing US monthly jobs reports results is also likely to influence the BoC’s moves. In addition, a surprisingly weak 3Q GDP growth of +1% annualized may have Governor Carney wondering if he was too early with his tightening policy earlier in the year.


Daily Usd/Cad Chart 


Near term, Support 2 near  0.9988 is the immediate support, follows by 0.9959, its recent Low. From the Technical outlook, A Long opportunity may be well presented from the area near 0.9950 which is  oversold  as extreme level.


Strategy: Looking to Long Usd/Cad near 0.9950 ,for target  near 1.0300

Gbp/Usd--- to head above 1.6000 near term ??

The pound has been tarnished with the euro because of geography and the debt problems in Ireland. The market action last week, with a Tuesday low of 1.5483, followed by a recovery above the 1.57 handle is showing signs of a reversal. Economic news from Britain has been not robust, but OK, and they do have some economic rehabilitation plans, unlike the Washington group. We do not favor new trades on a Friday, but will be looking for a long entry point next week.


Daily Chart Gbp/Usd




The Gbp/Usd shows bullish near term. On the above chart, a lift above 1.5865 (The Ichimoku Top Cloud Resistance will further confirm its bullishness toward its next level near 1.5986 (36.2% Fibo Retr), , follows by 1.6105 (23.8% Fibo Retr). 


However,  a drift below 1.5632 (Support 2) may confirm its longer term bearishness towards its next Low at 1.5000 , (Its 161.8% Fibo Ext.)

Usd/Jpy---- to revisit 80.00 level ??

The imminent selling down of Dollars and the  Risk aversion activity may push down Usd/Jpy  to   80.00 near term.  As Yen is still considered a safe heaven  Currency in the midst of the instability status of both Euros and Dollars.

Daily Chart Usd/ Jpy


From the Daily Chart above, we note that 82.25 is the Ichimoku Cloud bottom Support, which is also near the 61.80% Fibo Retr level. The Bearish sentiments may push down this currency pair towards the next  recent Low at 80.27 , and breaking below 80.00 may force BOJ to intervene .

Monday, November 8, 2010

GBP/USD---- TO BREACH 1.6500 NEAR TERM ??


    • As expected from the good UK Q3 GDP data, the BoE took no further steps towards more stimulus.
    • This week’s inflation report includes BoE forecasts for inflation and growth for the next 2 years that take into account anticipated austerity measures including deep spending cuts and a rise in VAT. In the prior August Inflation report, the BoE predicted inflation for 2013 between 1-2%, indicating that the Bank anticipated deflation and was thus leaning towards new stimulus.
    • However growth surprised to the upside in the third quarter and commodity prices have risen – the oil price is up 20% in the last three months. If future inflation expectations are revised higher on Tuesday then chances for new QE drop further, which would likely spark a further GBPUSD rally to 1.63 or even a challenge of 2009 highs around 1.65.
    H4 Chart GBP/USD
    Weekly Chart GBP/USD
    On the H4 CHART, breaching the Pivot at 1.6213  may expose this currency pair towards  1.6162(R1) and 1.6293 (R2 )., follows by the possible recent high at 1.6500.
    However, breaking the strong trend line Support  near 1.6000 may send this currency pair below 1.5865 (23.6% Fibo Retr.), or below the Ichimoku Cloud Bottom Support @1.5868 on H4 Chart).

Sunday, November 7, 2010

NZD/USD---Will it hit 0.8250 near terms ?

Upcoming Event/News ---       NZD- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Financial Stability Report, an assessment on current and future economic conditions and inflation, Tues., Nov. 9, 4:00 pm, ET.

It would be interesting to see if expectations of rising inflationary pressures were the reason why the RBNZ officials kept the door open to a potential hike at their December meeting or into Q1 2011.



The following are driving force for the Nzd..:-

    • Q3 jobs report beat boosts NZD
    • Hawkish RBNZ comments feed rate increase expectations, as FinMin English expects higher GDP (3%), rates could go from current 3% to 3.50-3.75%
    H4 Chart NZD/USD
    Daily Chart NZD/USD
    Technically, Nzd/Usd is bullish on longer term(in line with strong fundamentals) but may retrace slightly to near 0.7875(S2) and 0.7839 near term.
    So Buying up (Long) on dips is the best Strategy for this currency Pair. Lifting Above 0.7990 may expose 0.8225  level which will be the 3 Year peak.

EURO/USD ---Heading towards 1.4500 ??

USD stabilizes after US jobs growth outpaced expectations in October along with +110K in upward revisions for September and August


Non-farm payrolls, rose 151K in Oct from a revised -41K (prev -95K) in September and a revised -1K (prev -57K) in August. Unemployment remained at 9.6% for the 3rd consecutive month.


 Irish/Greek/Spanish 10 year spreads rose 20-25% relative to Germany for the past two weeks.


 But the euro can no longer sustain those highs solely on the back of the Fed asset purchases, while shrugging the ensuing widening in corporate spreads. Irelands ambitious new budget (yet to be approved in parliament) aims at cutting the deficit to 9.25%-9.5% of GDP in 2011 from the current 11.9%


H4 Chart Euro/Usd


Technically,  1.400 was sustained by last week's Closing, (the Support 3 ) on H4 chart,and the 200 SMA -on weekly chart is 1.3950.,resulting in  the Renewed surging upward near 1.4300, and 1.4450 Resistance cannot be discarded foe upcoming week.


However, any  movement below 1.3950 (200-week SMA) shall signal a reversal towards 1.3880 (Ichimoku Cloud to Resistance on H4), or 1.3862, being the 23.6 Fibo Retr on H4)


Weekly Chart Euro/Usd





Sunday, October 17, 2010

EURO/USD---- Will it reverse and go down below 1.3500 ??

RUMOURS OF A DEAL involving the US delaying the report or not naming China as manipulator IN EXCHANGE for China either revaluing the yuan or allowing it to appreciate faster. As part of any deal, CHINA WOULD NEED THE FED TO ISSUE LESS QE (purchase less treasuries) in order to alleviate the downward spiral of the USD. These talks are a strong reason to the consolidation seen in Thursday/ Friday  FX markets involving USD bounce and yen decline




 The Fed is expected to pump vast quantities of freshly printed dollars into the money markets, in a bid to lower long-term Treasury yields lower. The markets have already discounted the probability of at least $500-billion of QE-2 injections. On the surface, the Fed’s propaganda artists say they aim to prevent a deflationary collapse and stave off a “double-dip” recession. However, clandestinely, the Fed is monetizing the federal government’s debt and is prepared to buy the Treasury notes that Beijing decides to dump should a full scale Chinese-US trade war erupt. 

 So far, however, the ECB has limited its purchases of distressed sovereign bonds to 60-billion euros, and these purchases were largely sterilized, thus helping the euro to rebound to $1.400 last week. 
Also helping the euro to rebound sharply versus the US$, was the frequent drumbeat of implied threats by the Fed to unleash QE-2, and public calls of support for the euro by China’s premier Wen Jiaboa



A further rise in the eruo’s value against the Chinese yuan and the US-dollar could further undermine global demand for the eurozone’s industrial exports, which prompted the eurozone’s finance chief Jean-Claude Juncker to warn on October 8th, “The euro is too strong today,” as it crossed $1.400, ahead of a meeting of finance ministers and central bankers of the G-7 clique


Behind the scenes, the Fed engineered the euro’s recovery by submerging the yield on the US-Treasury’s 5-year note below Germany’s 5-year bund yields. So far, the ECB has refused to intervene to halt the euro’s rally. The ECB is skeptical in principle of interventions, - buying and selling currencies to affect exchange rates. However, if the Fed signals a larger than expected blast of QE-2 in November, the euro could climb higher, and complaints from eurozone industrialists would follow. At that point, the ECB might cast aside its principles, and begin printing euros and start buying bonds denominated in foreign currencies.

Euro – The single currency lost some ground on Friday after Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota offered the notion that further quantitative easing might have a muted impact than anticipated. Ahead of Friday’s more important U.S. events the euro has slipped to $1.4076 having reached $1.4113 earlier in the day. Christian Noyer of the ECB’s governing council noted on Friday that governments and central bankers need to find a way of solution to the disorderly nature of currency movements.

the Federal Reserve remains committed to pursuing policies that promote our dual objectives of maximum employment and price stability. In particular, the FOMC is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation over time to levels consistent with our mandate. 

in the past few weeks, entirely driven by QE2 expectations. The expectations are so high that inflation is finally being priced in (see 30-yr bonds, commodities, and gold), and Bernanke would have to do it even if he had a change of religion tonight, or else. The only question is when and how much. While I don't know the answer, I'm sure it lies somewhere between a dog and a fire hydrant. If QE2 is not big enough to cause another 10% drop in the dollar index, it'll snap back 10% along with equities/gold/commodities crashing through a significant correction. If it is big enough to meet the markets' insane expectations, it will most likely kick the currency war into full speed and start the sequence that leads to the dollar's death as the international reserve currency.




In countries where there is a huge deficit the only solution to pay back debts is through a devalued currency. Japan has recently intervened to try to devalue the strengthening yen. A strengthening currency to countries with huge obligations can heighten the risk of default which many countries are facing. Also, a strong currency puts pressure on international corporations who export products abroad. A weak dollar will cause the products to be more expensive to American consumers which will hurt demand and growth. More sovereign debt defaults in emerging markets are expected. It appears that from the European Debt Crisis that many investors ran to the dollar from the Euro. I expect something similar to occur now. The Euro is overbought and the U.S. dollar is reaching long term support. The Euro is reaching a key resistance level and is overbought. This means a pullback should occur. The U.S. Dollar is extremely oversold and at long term support. The bearish sentiment on the U.S. Dollar is extremely bearish which indicates a reversal should occur.


the investment community is expecting too much from the Fed and it appears the Fed is doing an excellent job stimulating the markets just through speculation of a move rather than the actual move itself.
This last easing from the Fed has met with some more critics and it has definitely increased international tensions. The U.S. dollar has collapsed and is now testing long term support.

. If QE2 is not big enough to cause another 10% drop in the dollar index, it'll snap back 10% along with equities/gold/commodities crashing through a significant correction. If it is big enough to meet the markets' insane expectations, it will most likely kick the currency war into full speed and start the sequence that leads to the dollar's death as the international reserve 
currency.




The Euro is overbought and the U.S. dollar is reaching long term support. The Euro is reaching a key resistance level and is overbought. This means a pullback should occur. The U.S. Dollar is extremely oversold and at long term support. The bearish sentiment on the U.S. Dollar is extremely bearish which indicates a reversal should occur.


Technically the dollar is due for a bounce ,and investors should look for any pullbacks in gold and silver as a buy point. 
Instead of the risk associated with buying bullion at these extended prices, many juniors who would be extremely profitable at lower gold and silver prices have not broken out yet.


Euro//Usd Daily Chart







Euro/Usd  H4  Chart


On the Daily Chart, we observe that a possible Top may have been stamped near 1.4155, which is not 100% Confirmed. Wave Being marked 5  is near 1.4250, which may have been prematurely attained at.   This currency pair may now  reverse to the next level near 1.3555 (61.8% Fibo Retr)
The fact that Euro/Usd could not sustain at 1.4000 on last Friday Close may signal a reversal from that point, 


On the H4 Chart with Ichimoku,we do note that 1.3880 is the Ichimoku Cloud Top support
(Which is also quite near the 1.3865 , being the 23.6% Fibo Retr). , Breaching this important Support will expose this currency pair toward 1.3790 (also near the 0.00% Fibo Retr.) , Follows by 1.3580.( All indicators are showing Bearing Sentiments near term)