Analysis on AUD/USD and its Trade-Setup for incoming week

AUD/USD PEAKED AT 0.8724, which is also the 50% Fibo Retracement level as shown in the attached Chart. The Double bottom has beautifully formed but seemed to have difficulty to complete the deeds ( to push its level above the expected 0.9000 to the North) .

The uplifting momentum turned weaker toward end of the week with the 4H MACD   below its signal line.From Chart A(H4), the support trend line was being violated frequently, giving alerts on possible weakness  and unconvincing Positive momentum.

The daily chart indicates some remaining mild bullish strength, with MACD. RSI, STOCHASTIC ALL showing positively biased direction.However, the near terms may indicate additional  modest GAINS .The AUD/USD may be further pushed toward the 0.8800-0.8900 level ,before it may reverse its course toward the South Bearish zone again from there.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE 20 EMA IS 0.8510 approx.

The followings may affect the AUD/USD in week ahead,:--

1.) The price of Gold has registered a high at 1261on Last Friday, Technically, the  upward momentum for   GOLD may be diminishing, and it may drift downward next.week..

2.) The relative recovery  and stabilization on the Euro with a Firm USD in week ahead, 

3) Uncertainty on China's GDP Nos and Her liquidity tightening/Economy Hard landing  may affect her import of Minerals from Australia.

4)Higher Australia's First quarter inflation rate of 0.9% as compared to the expected 0.5%, and the chance of further rate increase is rather slim in Second quarter.

Strategy:

SELL THE AUD/USD  WHEN THE PAIR HAS PEAKED NEAR .08730-0.8800 ( See Chart B , 0.8728 is ITS 50% RETRACEMENT, From bottom  at 0.8066 To top at 0.9389),,as near term the pair may indicate modest GAINS.

TARGET: FIRST TARGET 0.8582 (ITS 38.2% RETRACEMENT)

                 SECOND TARGET: OPEN




Chart A H4

Daily Chart

HI  With Guppy Trend Lines

Happy Trading